General Diaz 1–1 12 de Octubre: Result & Stats

General Diaz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

12 de Octubre

7/31/2020

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

General Diaz34%

×Draw27%

12 de Octubre38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General DiazExpected goals in this match12 de Octubre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.26

General Diaz

1.18

12 de Octubre

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

1.00

creates per match

0.94

1.58

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

General Diaz

1.00

12 de Octubre

0.94

allows per match

General Diaz

1.58

12 de Octubre

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par

12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

12 de Octubre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw

62%

General Diaz or 12 de Octubre

73%

Draw or 12 de Octubre

66%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+

14%

12 de Octubre wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals

69%

General Diaz 2+ goals

33%

General Diaz 3+ goals

12%

12 de Octubre 1+ goals

72%

12 de Octubre 2+ goals

36%

12 de Octubre 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)

47%

12 de Octubre (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

General Diaz scores more

34%

level

27%

12 de Octubre scores more

38%

12 de Octubre at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "12 de Octubre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff