General Caballero 1–3 Olimpia: Result & Stats

General Caballero

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia

5/5/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 16Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

General Caballero24%

×Draw25%

Olimpia52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General CaballeroExpected goals in this matchOlimpia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.62

General Caballero

1.01

Olimpia

1.62

Olimpia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 97 away

1.05

creates per match

1.76

1.48

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

General Caballero

1.05

Olimpia

1.76

allows per match

General Caballero

1.48

Olimpia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par

Olimpia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Olimpia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw

48%

General Caballero or Olimpia

75%

Draw or Olimpia

76%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+

9%

Olimpia wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals

64%

General Caballero 2+ goals

27%

General Caballero 3+ goals

8%

Olimpia 1+ goals

80%

Olimpia 2+ goals

48%

Olimpia 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)

31%

Olimpia (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 44 matches

Olimpia away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 1.05 + Olimpia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Olimpia attack 1.76 + General Caballero defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

General Caballero scores more

24%

level

25%

Olimpia scores more

52%

Olimpia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff