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General Caballero vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
2 – 0
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
G. Caballero 71'
L. Fernandez 6'
9/11/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 28Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

General Caballero51%
×Draw24%
Guaraní de Trinidad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.68
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.11

General Caballero creates 51% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 32 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
75%
General Caballero or Guaraní de Trinidad
76%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
49%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
27%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
81%
General Caballero 2+ goals
50%
General Caballero 3+ goals
24%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
67%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
30%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
67%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.68

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

General Caballero scores more
51%
level
24%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
25%

General Caballero at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
L. Fernandez
71'
G. Caballero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: General Caballero 2–0 Guaraní de Trinidad

General Caballero beat Guaraní de Trinidad 2-0 in Division Intermedia on September 11, 2021.

Goals: L. Fernandez (6'), G. Caballero (71').

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.