General Caballero 0–0 General Diaz: Result & Stats

General Caballero

FT

0 – 0

General Diaz

8/29/2021

Division Intermedia · Round 26Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

General Caballero60%

×Draw22%

General Diaz17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General CaballeroExpected goals in this matchGeneral Diaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.88

General Caballero

1.86

General Diaz

0.88

General Caballero creates 111% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 17 away

2.02

creates per match

0.59

1.16

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

General Caballero

2.02

General Diaz

0.59

allows per match

General Caballero

1.16

General Diaz

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par

General Diaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

General Diaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw

83%

General Caballero or General Diaz

78%

Draw or General Diaz

40%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+

35%

General Diaz wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals

84%

General Caballero 2+ goals

55%

General Caballero 3+ goals

28%

General Diaz 1+ goals

59%

General Diaz 2+ goals

22%

General Diaz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)

78%

General Diaz (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

General Diaz away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + General Diaz defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

General Diaz attack 0.59 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

General Caballero scores more

60%

level

22%

General Diaz scores more

17%

General Caballero at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff