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General Caballero vs Deportivo Caaguazu — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
1 – 0
Deportivo Caaguazu
Deportivo Caaguazu
8/4/2019Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Leandro Ovelar (Doctor Juan León Mallorquín)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

General Caballero61%
×Draw21%
Deportivo Caaguazu17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.98
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.94

General Caballero creates 111% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
Deportivo Caaguazu
0.73

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
Deportivo Caaguazu
1.93

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Deportivo Caaguazu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Deportivo Caaguazu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
83%
General Caballero or Deportivo Caaguazu
79%
Draw or Deportivo Caaguazu
39%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
37%
Deportivo Caaguazu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
86%
General Caballero 2+ goals
59%
General Caballero 3+ goals
31%
Deportivo Caaguazu 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Caaguazu 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Caaguazu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
78%
Deportivo Caaguazu (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Deportivo Caaguazu away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + Deportivo Caaguazu defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Deportivo Caaguazu attack 0.73 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

General Caballero scores more
61%
level
21%
Deportivo Caaguazu scores more
17%

General Caballero at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Caballero vs Deportivo Caaguazu

General Caballero beat Deportivo Caaguazu 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar (Doctor Juan León Mallorquín).