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General Caballero vs 12 de Octubre — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
12 de Octubre
12 de Octubre
4/20/2022Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Leandro Ovelar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

General Caballero36%
×Draw28%
12 de Octubre36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.20
12 de Octubre
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 31 away

creates per match

General Caballero
1.05
12 de Octubre
0.94

allows per match

General Caballero
1.48
12 de Octubre
1.35

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
12 de Octubre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

12 de Octubre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
64%
General Caballero or 12 de Octubre
72%
Draw or 12 de Octubre
64%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
15%
12 de Octubre wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
70%
General Caballero 2+ goals
34%
General Caballero 3+ goals
12%
12 de Octubre 1+ goals
70%
12 de Octubre 2+ goals
34%
12 de Octubre 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
50%
12 de Octubre (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 44 matches

12 de Octubre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 1.05 + 12 de Octubre defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

12 de Octubre attack 0.94 + General Caballero defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

General Caballero scores more
36%
level
28%
12 de Octubre scores more
36%

General Caballero at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Caballero vs 12 de Octubre

General Caballero and 12 de Octubre drew 0-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Leandro Ovelar in Doctor Juan León Mallorquín.