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Gendrim vs Pompiers — Premier League 2020

Gendrim
Gendrim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pompiers
Pompiers
10/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Gendrim36%
×Draw31%
Pompiers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gendrim
1.00
Pompiers
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 42 away

creates per match

Gendrim
0.89
Pompiers
0.81

allows per match

Gendrim
1.06
Pompiers
1.10

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par
Pompiers+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

Pompiers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw
67%
Gendrim or Pompiers
69%
Draw or Pompiers
64%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+
14%
Pompiers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals
63%
Gendrim 2+ goals
26%
Gendrim 3+ goals
8%
Pompiers 1+ goals
61%
Pompiers 2+ goals
24%
Pompiers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)
52%
Pompiers (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Pompiers away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + Pompiers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Pompiers attack 0.81 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Gendrim scores more
36%
level
31%
Pompiers scores more
33%

Gendrim at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Gendrim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gendrim 0–0 Pompiers

Gendrim and Pompiers drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.