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Gendrim vs Nouadhibou — Premier League 2020

Gendrim
Gendrim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Nouadhibou
Nouadhibou
4/7/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gendrim20%
×Draw28%
Nouadhibou52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gendrim
0.73
Nouadhibou
1.36

Nouadhibou creates 86% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 80 away

creates per match

Gendrim
0.89
Nouadhibou
1.66

allows per match

Gendrim
1.06
Nouadhibou
0.57

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par
Nouadhibou+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

Nouadhibou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw
48%
Gendrim or Nouadhibou
72%
Draw or Nouadhibou
80%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+
6%
Nouadhibou wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals
52%
Gendrim 2+ goals
17%
Gendrim 3+ goals
4%
Nouadhibou 1+ goals
74%
Nouadhibou 2+ goals
39%
Nouadhibou 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)
28%
Nouadhibou (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Nouadhibou away — creates 1.66, concedes 0.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + Nouadhibou defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.73

Nouadhibou attack 1.66 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gendrim scores more
20%
level
28%
Nouadhibou scores more
52%

Nouadhibou at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nouadhibou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gendrim vs Nouadhibou

Nouadhibou beat Gendrim 2-1 in Premier League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.