Gendrim 1–1 Kaédi: Result & Stats | Premier League

Gendrim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kaédi

11/3/2024

Premier League · Round 6Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gendrim43%

×Draw29%

Kaédi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GendrimExpected goals in this matchKaédi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.97

Gendrim

1.26

Kaédi

0.97

Gendrim creates 30% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 78 away

0.89

creates per match

0.88

1.06

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gendrim

0.89

Kaédi

0.88

allows per match

Gendrim

1.06

Kaédi

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par

Kaédi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

Kaédi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw

71%

Gendrim or Kaédi

71%

Draw or Kaédi

57%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+

19%

Kaédi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals

72%

Gendrim 2+ goals

36%

Gendrim 3+ goals

13%

Kaédi 1+ goals

62%

Kaédi 2+ goals

25%

Kaédi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)

60%

Kaédi (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Kaédi away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.64 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + Kaédi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kaédi attack 0.88 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gendrim scores more

43%

level

29%

Kaédi scores more

29%

Gendrim at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gendrim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff