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Gendrim vs Al Merreikh — Premier League 2020

Gendrim
Gendrim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Merreikh
Al Merreikh
E. Voulany 41' (pen)
H. Saboun 15'
2/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gendrim30%
×Draw31%
Al Merreikh39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gendrim
0.88
Al Merreikh
1.06

Al Merreikh creates 20% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gendrim
0.89
Al Merreikh
1.07

allows per match

Gendrim
1.06
Al Merreikh
0.87

finishing

Gendrim+0.00on par
Al Merreikh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gendrim ↓

Al Merreikh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gendrim or draw
61%
Gendrim or Al Merreikh
69%
Draw or Al Merreikh
70%

Winning margin

Gendrim wins by 2+
10%
Al Merreikh wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gendrim 1+ goals
59%
Gendrim 2+ goals
22%
Gendrim 3+ goals
6%
Al Merreikh 1+ goals
65%
Al Merreikh 2+ goals
29%
Al Merreikh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gendrim (draw refunded)
43%
Al Merreikh (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gendrim at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 54 matches

Al Merreikh away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gendrim attack 0.89 + Al Merreikh defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Al Merreikh attack 1.07 + Gendrim defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gendrim scores more
30%
level
31%
Al Merreikh scores more
39%

Al Merreikh at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Merreikh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
H. Saboun
19'
41'
E. VoulanyPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Gendrim 1–1 Al Merreikh

Gendrim and Al Merreikh drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 15, 2025.

Goals: H. Saboun (15'), E. Voulany (41' pen).

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.