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Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
12/19/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.52%
×Draw25%
Kasımpaşa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.65
Kasımpaşa
1.03

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.75
Kasımpaşa
1.18

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0.88
Kasımpaşa
1.55

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par
Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Kasımpaşa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw
76%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Kasımpaşa
75%
Draw or Kasımpaşa
48%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
28%
Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
81%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
49%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
23%
Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
64%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
28%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
69%
Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.75 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
52%
level
25%
Kasımpaşa scores more
24%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa

Kasımpaşa beat Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.