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Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kardemir Karabukspor — 1. Lig 2018

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kardemir Karabukspor
Kardemir Karabukspor
12/1/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 14Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.81%
×Draw13%
Kardemir Karabukspor6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2.71
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.63

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 330% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.36
Kardemir Karabukspor
0.18

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.07
Kardemir Karabukspor
4.06

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par
Kardemir Karabukspor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Kardemir Karabukspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw
94%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Kardemir Karabukspor
87%
Draw or Kardemir Karabukspor
19%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
60%
Kardemir Karabukspor wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
93%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
75%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
50%
Kardemir Karabukspor 1+ goals
47%
Kardemir Karabukspor 2+ goals
13%
Kardemir Karabukspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
93%
Kardemir Karabukspor (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Kardemir Karabukspor away — creates 0.18, concedes 4.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.36 + Kardemir Karabukspor defence 4.06 → ÷2 → 2.71

Kardemir Karabukspor attack 0.18 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
81%
level
13%
Kardemir Karabukspor scores more
6%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 6–0 Kardemir Karabukspor

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Kardemir Karabukspor 6-0 in 1. Lig on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Yeni Eskişehir Stadyumu in Eskişehir.