Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Kırşehir Belediyespor

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kırşehir Belediyespor

11/24/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundEryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.71%

×Draw19%

Kırşehir Belediyespor11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.Expected goals in this matchKırşehir Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.69

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

2.13

Kırşehir Belediyespor

0.69

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 209% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

0.50

0.88

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.75

Kırşehir Belediyespor

0.50

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

0.88

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Kırşehir Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw

89%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Kırşehir Belediyespor

81%

Draw or Kırşehir Belediyespor

29%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

46%

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

88%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

63%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

35%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

50%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

15%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

87%

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.75 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

71%

level

19%

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more

11%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff