Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Diyarbekirspor

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Diyarbekirspor

11/1/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundOsmanlı Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.72%

×Draw18%

Diyarbekirspor10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.Expected goals in this matchDiyarbekirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.69

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

2.21

Diyarbekirspor

0.69

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 220% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

1.75

creates per match

0.50

0.88

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

1.75

Diyarbekirspor

0.50

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

0.88

Diyarbekirspor

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Diyarbekirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw

90%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Diyarbekirspor

82%

Draw or Diyarbekirspor

28%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+

48%

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals

89%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals

65%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals

38%

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals

50%

Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals

15%

Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)

88%

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Diyarbekirspor away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.75 + Diyarbekirspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Diyarbekirspor attack 0.50 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more

72%

level

18%

Diyarbekirspor scores more

10%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff