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Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Balıkesirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Balıkesirspor
Balıkesirspor
2/26/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 27Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.49%
×Draw27%
Balıkesirspor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.45
Balıkesirspor
0.93

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 56% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 69 away

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.36
Balıkesirspor
0.78

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.07
Balıkesirspor
1.54

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par
Balıkesirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Balıkesirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw
76%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Balıkesirspor
73%
Draw or Balıkesirspor
51%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
24%
Balıkesirspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
77%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
42%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
18%
Balıkesirspor 1+ goals
61%
Balıkesirspor 2+ goals
24%
Balıkesirspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
67%
Balıkesirspor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Balıkesirspor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.54 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.36 + Balıkesirspor defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Balıkesirspor attack 0.78 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
49%
level
27%
Balıkesirspor scores more
24%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Balıkesirspor

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Balıkesirspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.