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Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Altınordu — 1. Lig 2018

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Altınordu
Altınordu
9/15/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 5Eryaman Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K.44%
×Draw26%
Altınordu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.44
Altınordu
1.14

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 26% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 87 away

creates per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.36
Altınordu
1.20

allows per match

Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.07
Altınordu
1.51

finishing

Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par
Altınordu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gençlerbirliği S.K. ↓

Altınordu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw
70%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. or Altınordu
74%
Draw or Altınordu
56%

Winning margin

Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
21%
Altınordu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
76%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
42%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
18%
Altınordu 1+ goals
68%
Altınordu 2+ goals
32%
Altınordu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
59%
Altınordu (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Altınordu away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.51 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.36 + Altınordu defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Altınordu attack 1.20 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
44%
level
26%
Altınordu scores more
30%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Altınordu

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Altınordu 3-2 in 1. Lig on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Eryaman Stadyumu in Ankara.