Gemert 1–0 SteDoCo: Result & Stats

Gemert

FT

1 – 0

SteDoCo

8/17/2024

Derde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 1Sportpark Molenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gemert45%

×Draw23%

SteDoCo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GemertExpected goals in this matchSteDoCo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.44

Gemert

1.77

SteDoCo

1.44

Gemert creates 23% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 51 away

1.96

creates per match

1.49

1.39

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Gemert

1.96

SteDoCo

1.49

allows per match

Gemert

1.39

SteDoCo

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gemert+0.00on par

SteDoCo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gemert ↓

SteDoCo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gemert or draw

69%

Gemert or SteDoCo

77%

Draw or SteDoCo

55%

Winning margin

Gemert wins by 2+

24%

SteDoCo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gemert 1+ goals

83%

Gemert 2+ goals

53%

Gemert 3+ goals

26%

SteDoCo 1+ goals

76%

SteDoCo 2+ goals

42%

SteDoCo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gemert (draw refunded)

59%

SteDoCo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gemert at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

SteDoCo away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gemert attack 1.96 + SteDoCo defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

SteDoCo attack 1.49 + Gemert defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Gemert scores more

45%

level

23%

SteDoCo scores more

31%

Gemert at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff