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Gemert vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Gemert
Gemert
FT
2 – 4
OSS '20
OSS '20
8/24/2019Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 1Sportpark Molenbroek (Gemert)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Gemert46%
×Draw23%
OSS '2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gemert
1.81
OSS '20
1.44

Gemert creates 26% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 65 away

creates per match

Gemert
1.96
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

Gemert
1.39
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

Gemert+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gemert ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gemert or draw
69%
Gemert or OSS '20
77%
Draw or OSS '20
54%

Winning margin

Gemert wins by 2+
25%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Gemert 1+ goals
84%
Gemert 2+ goals
54%
Gemert 3+ goals
27%
OSS '20 1+ goals
76%
OSS '20 2+ goals
42%
OSS '20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gemert (draw refunded)
60%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gemert at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gemert attack 1.96 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.81

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + Gemert defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gemert scores more
46%
level
23%
OSS '20 scores more
31%

Gemert at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gemert 2 – 4 OSS '20

OSS '20 beat Gemert 4-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenbroek (Gemert).