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Gemert vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Gemert
Gemert
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
11/12/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 12Sportpark Molenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gemert49%
×Draw22%
OJC Rosmalen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gemert
1.90
OJC Rosmalen
1.42

Gemert creates 34% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gemert
1.96
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

Gemert
1.39
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

Gemert+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gemert ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gemert or draw
71%
Gemert or OJC Rosmalen
78%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
51%

Winning margin

Gemert wins by 2+
27%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gemert 1+ goals
85%
Gemert 2+ goals
56%
Gemert 3+ goals
29%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
76%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
41%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gemert (draw refunded)
63%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gemert at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gemert attack 1.96 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.90

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + Gemert defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gemert scores more
49%
level
22%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
29%

Gemert at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gemert vs OJC Rosmalen

Gemert and OJC Rosmalen drew 1-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenbroek in Gemert.