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Gemert vs OFC Oostzaan — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Gemert
Gemert
FT
3 – 0
OFC Oostzaan
OFC Oostzaan
2/2/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 20Sportpark Molenbroek (Gemert)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Gemert43%
×Draw23%
OFC Oostzaan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gemert
1.79
OFC Oostzaan
1.56

Gemert creates 15% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 31 away

creates per match

Gemert
1.96
OFC Oostzaan
1.74

allows per match

Gemert
1.39
OFC Oostzaan
1.61

finishing

Gemert+0.00on par
OFC Oostzaan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gemert ↓

OFC Oostzaan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Gemert or draw
66%
Gemert or OFC Oostzaan
77%
Draw or OFC Oostzaan
57%

Winning margin

Gemert wins by 2+
23%
OFC Oostzaan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gemert 1+ goals
83%
Gemert 2+ goals
53%
Gemert 3+ goals
26%
OFC Oostzaan 1+ goals
79%
OFC Oostzaan 2+ goals
46%
OFC Oostzaan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Gemert (draw refunded)
56%
OFC Oostzaan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gemert at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

OFC Oostzaan away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gemert attack 1.96 + OFC Oostzaan defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

OFC Oostzaan attack 1.74 + Gemert defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gemert scores more
43%
level
23%
OFC Oostzaan scores more
34%

Gemert at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Gemert 3–0 OFC Oostzaan

Gemert beat OFC Oostzaan 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenbroek (Gemert).