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Gemert vs Groene Ster — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Gemert
Gemert
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Groene Ster
Groene Ster
12/17/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Girone B - 17Sportpark Molenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Gemert54%
×Draw22%
Groene Ster23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gemert
1.90
Groene Ster
1.17

Gemert creates 62% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

creates per match

Gemert
1.96
Groene Ster
0.94

allows per match

Gemert
1.39
Groene Ster
1.83

finishing

Gemert+0.00on par
Groene Ster+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gemert ↓

Groene Ster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gemert or draw
77%
Gemert or Groene Ster
78%
Draw or Groene Ster
46%

Winning margin

Gemert wins by 2+
31%
Groene Ster wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gemert 1+ goals
85%
Gemert 2+ goals
56%
Gemert 3+ goals
29%
Groene Ster 1+ goals
69%
Groene Ster 2+ goals
33%
Groene Ster 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gemert (draw refunded)
70%
Groene Ster (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gemert at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

Groene Ster away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gemert attack 1.96 + Groene Ster defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.90

Groene Ster attack 0.94 + Gemert defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gemert scores more
54%
level
22%
Groene Ster scores more
23%

Gemert at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Gemert 3–1 Groene Ster

Gemert beat Groene Ster 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenbroek in Gemert.