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Gemert vs Blauw Geel — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Gemert
Gemert
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Blauw Geel
Blauw Geel
3/1/2026Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 24Sportpark Molenbroek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gemert43%
×Draw23%
Blauw Geel33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gemert
1.75
Blauw Geel
1.51

Gemert creates 16% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

Gemert
1.96
Blauw Geel
1.64

allows per match

Gemert
1.39
Blauw Geel
1.53

finishing

Gemert+0.00on par
Blauw Geel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gemert ↓

Blauw Geel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gemert or draw
67%
Gemert or Blauw Geel
77%
Draw or Blauw Geel
57%

Winning margin

Gemert wins by 2+
23%
Blauw Geel wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gemert 1+ goals
83%
Gemert 2+ goals
52%
Gemert 3+ goals
25%
Blauw Geel 1+ goals
78%
Blauw Geel 2+ goals
44%
Blauw Geel 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gemert (draw refunded)
57%
Blauw Geel (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gemert at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

Blauw Geel away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gemert attack 1.96 + Blauw Geel defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Blauw Geel attack 1.64 + Gemert defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gemert scores more
43%
level
23%
Blauw Geel scores more
33%

Gemert at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gemert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gemert vs Blauw Geel

Blauw Geel beat Gemert 3-2 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Sportpark Molenbroek in Gemert.