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Geležinis Vilkas vs Minija — Cup 2020

Geležinis Vilkas
Geležinis Vilkas
FT
0 – 12
HT: 0 – 8
Minija
Minija
4/12/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Geležinis Vilkas1%
×Draw2%
Minija98%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geležinis Vilkas
0.63
Minija
6.58

Minija creates 944% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Geležinis Vilkas
0.75
Minija
5.17

allows per match

Geležinis Vilkas
8.00
Minija
0.50

finishing

Geležinis Vilkas+0.00on par
Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geležinis Vilkas ↓

Minija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–37%
0–411%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–34%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–31%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (11%) · grid covers 42% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

Geležinis Vilkas or draw
2%
Geležinis Vilkas or Minija
98%
Draw or Minija
99%

Winning margin

Geležinis Vilkas wins by 2+
0%
Minija wins by 2+
93%

Team goals

Geležinis Vilkas 1+ goals
47%
Geležinis Vilkas 2+ goals
13%
Geležinis Vilkas 3+ goals
3%
Minija 1+ goals
100%
Minija 2+ goals
98%
Minija 3+ goals
92%

Draw no bet

Geležinis Vilkas (draw refunded)
1%
Minija (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geležinis Vilkas at home — creates 0.75, concedes 8.00 · 4 matches

Minija away — creates 5.17, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geležinis Vilkas attack 0.75 + Minija defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Minija attack 5.17 + Geležinis Vilkas defence 8.00 → ÷2 → 6.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 98%?"

Geležinis Vilkas scores more
1%
level
2%
Minija scores more
98%

Minija at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Minija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Geležinis Vilkas 0 – 12 Minija

Minija beat Geležinis Vilkas 12-0 in Cup on April 12, 2026.