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Gelbison vs Savoia — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Gelbison
Gelbison
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Savoia
Savoia
9/15/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 2Stadio Raffaele Guariglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gelbison54%
×Draw25%
Savoia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gelbison
1.65
Savoia
0.94

Gelbison creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Gelbison
2.00
Savoia
0.88

allows per match

Gelbison
1.00
Savoia
1.29

finishing

Gelbison+0.00on par
Savoia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gelbison ↓

Savoia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gelbison or draw
79%
Gelbison or Savoia
75%
Draw or Savoia
46%

Winning margin

Gelbison wins by 2+
29%
Savoia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Gelbison 1+ goals
81%
Gelbison 2+ goals
49%
Gelbison 3+ goals
23%
Savoia 1+ goals
61%
Savoia 2+ goals
24%
Savoia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Gelbison (draw refunded)
72%
Savoia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gelbison at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Savoia away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gelbison attack 2.00 + Savoia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Savoia attack 0.88 + Gelbison defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Gelbison scores more
54%
level
25%
Savoia scores more
21%

Gelbison at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gelbison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Gelbison 1–0 Savoia

Gelbison beat Savoia 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Raffaele Guariglia in Agropoli.