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Gelbison vs Ilvamaddalena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Gelbison
Gelbison
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ilvamaddalena
Ilvamaddalena
10/19/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 7Campo Tenente Vaudano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Gelbison53%
×Draw24%
Ilvamaddalena23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gelbison
1.68
Ilvamaddalena
1.02

Gelbison creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gelbison
2.00
Ilvamaddalena
1.03

allows per match

Gelbison
1.00
Ilvamaddalena
1.35

finishing

Gelbison+0.00on par
Ilvamaddalena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gelbison ↓

Ilvamaddalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gelbison or draw
77%
Gelbison or Ilvamaddalena
76%
Draw or Ilvamaddalena
47%

Winning margin

Gelbison wins by 2+
29%
Ilvamaddalena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gelbison 1+ goals
81%
Gelbison 2+ goals
50%
Gelbison 3+ goals
24%
Ilvamaddalena 1+ goals
64%
Ilvamaddalena 2+ goals
27%
Ilvamaddalena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gelbison (draw refunded)
70%
Ilvamaddalena (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gelbison at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Ilvamaddalena away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gelbison attack 2.00 + Ilvamaddalena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ilvamaddalena attack 1.03 + Gelbison defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gelbison scores more
53%
level
24%
Ilvamaddalena scores more
23%

Gelbison at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gelbison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Gelbison 2–2 Ilvamaddalena

Gelbison and Ilvamaddalena drew 2-2 in Serie D - Girone G on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Tenente Vaudano in Capaccio Paestum.