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GEL vs CTE Colatina — Capixaba B 2027

GEL
GEL
Preview
18:00
CTE Colatina
CTE Colatina
8/15/2026Capixaba BCapixaba B · Round 7
40%
GEL
model favours
40%19%40%
2–2
likely score
84%
over 2.5 goals
81%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

GEL40%
×Draw19%
CTE Colatina40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GEL
2.33
CTE Colatina
2.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

GEL
0.50
CTE Colatina
1.17

allows per match

GEL
3.50
CTE Colatina
4.17

finishing

GEL+0.00on par
CTE Colatina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 84Under: 1684%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 81No: 1981%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GEL ↓

CTE Colatina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

GEL or draw
60%
GEL or CTE Colatina
81%
Draw or CTE Colatina
60%

Winning margin

GEL wins by 2+
23%
CTE Colatina wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

GEL 1+ goals
90%
GEL 2+ goals
67%
GEL 3+ goals
41%
CTE Colatina 1+ goals
90%
CTE Colatina 2+ goals
67%
CTE Colatina 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

GEL (draw refunded)
50%
CTE Colatina (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GEL at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

CTE Colatina away — creates 1.17, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GEL attack 0.50 + CTE Colatina defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

CTE Colatina attack 1.17 + GEL defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

GEL scores more
40%
level
19%
CTE Colatina scores more
40%

GEL at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GEL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
GEL
DDLLL
Colatina
LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GEL vs CTE Colatina — Match Preview

GEL face CTE Colatina on August 15, 2026 in this Capixaba B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.