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CTE Colatina vs GEL — Capixaba B 2027

CTE Colatina
CTE Colatina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
GEL
GEL
7/19/2026Capixaba BCapixaba B · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

CTE Colatina46%
×Draw20%
GEL34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CTE Colatina
2.25
GEL
1.91

CTE Colatina creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

CTE Colatina
1.40
GEL
0.22

allows per match

CTE Colatina
3.60
GEL
3.11

finishing

CTE Colatina+0.00on par
GEL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 78Under: 2278%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 76No: 2476%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CTE Colatina ↓

GEL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

CTE Colatina or draw
66%
CTE Colatina or GEL
80%
Draw or GEL
54%

Winning margin

CTE Colatina wins by 2+
27%
GEL wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CTE Colatina 1+ goals
89%
CTE Colatina 2+ goals
65%
CTE Colatina 3+ goals
39%
GEL 1+ goals
85%
GEL 2+ goals
57%
GEL 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

CTE Colatina (draw refunded)
58%
GEL (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CTE Colatina at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

GEL away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CTE Colatina attack 1.40 + GEL defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.25

GEL attack 0.22 + CTE Colatina defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CTE Colatina scores more
46%
level
20%
GEL scores more
34%

CTE Colatina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CTE Colatina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CTE Colatina vs GEL

CTE Colatina and GEL drew 1-1 in Capixaba B on July 19, 2026.