Geita Gold 1–1 Simba: Result & Stats

Geita Gold

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Simba

G. Mpole 20'

D. Kibu 27'

5/22/2022

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 24CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold22%

×Draw28%

Simba51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geita GoldExpected goals in this matchSimba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.38

Geita Gold

0.80

Simba

1.38

Simba creates 72% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

1.09

creates per match

1.72

1.04

allows per match

0.51

creates per match

Geita Gold

1.09

Simba

1.72

allows per match

Geita Gold

1.04

Simba

0.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par

Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Simba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw

49%

Geita Gold or Simba

72%

Draw or Simba

78%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+

7%

Simba wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals

55%

Geita Gold 2+ goals

19%

Geita Gold 3+ goals

5%

Simba 1+ goals

75%

Simba 2+ goals

40%

Simba 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)

30%

Simba (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Simba away — creates 1.72, concedes 0.51 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Simba defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.80

Simba attack 1.72 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Geita Gold scores more

22%

level

28%

Simba scores more

51%

Simba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

G. Mpole

27'

D. Kibu↳ L. Bwalya

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff