Geita Gold 2–0 Dodoma Jiji: Result & Stats

Geita Gold

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dodoma Jiji

1/14/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 20Nyankumbu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Geita Gold47%

×Draw28%

Dodoma Jiji24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Geita GoldExpected goals in this matchDodoma Jiji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.85

Geita Gold

1.31

Dodoma Jiji

0.85

Geita Gold creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 92 away

1.09

creates per match

0.67

1.04

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Geita Gold

1.09

Dodoma Jiji

0.67

allows per match

Geita Gold

1.04

Dodoma Jiji

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geita Gold+0.00on par

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geita Gold ↓

Dodoma Jiji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Geita Gold or draw

76%

Geita Gold or Dodoma Jiji

72%

Draw or Dodoma Jiji

53%

Winning margin

Geita Gold wins by 2+

22%

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Geita Gold 1+ goals

73%

Geita Gold 2+ goals

38%

Geita Gold 3+ goals

14%

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals

57%

Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals

21%

Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Geita Gold (draw refunded)

66%

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geita Gold at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geita Gold attack 1.09 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.67 + Geita Gold defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Geita Gold scores more

47%

level

28%

Dodoma Jiji scores more

24%

Geita Gold at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Geita Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff