Gefle IF 0–4 Varbergs BoIS FC: Result & Stats

Gefle IF

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Varbergs BoIS FC

A. Bitiqi 90+3' (pen)

K. Appiah Nyarko 58'

A. Johansson 54', 14'

8/10/2024

Superettan · Round 18Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Gefle IF32%

×Draw24%

Varbergs BoIS FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gefle IFExpected goals in this matchVarbergs BoIS FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.69

Gefle IF

1.40

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.69

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

1.02

creates per match

1.50

1.89

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Gefle IF

1.02

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.50

allows per match

Gefle IF

1.89

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.77

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Gefle IF+0.41scores more

Varbergs BoIS FC+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gefle IF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gefle IF or draw

56%

Gefle IF or Varbergs BoIS FC

76%

Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC

68%

Winning margin

Gefle IF wins by 2+

14%

Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Gefle IF 1+ goals

75%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

41%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

17%

Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals

82%

Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals

50%

Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

42%

Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gefle IF at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.77 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gefle IF attack 1.02 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.40

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.50 + Gefle IF defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gefle IF scores more

32%

level

24%

Varbergs BoIS FC scores more

44%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Johansson

Varbergs BoIS FC · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

Martin Rauschenberg Brorsen

14'

53'

54'

54'

58'

63'

O. Alfonsi← K. Appiah Nyarko

69'

J. Hjelte← H. Bellman

73'

S. Friman← A. Lundin

74'

Lukas Browning Lagerfeldt

75'

A. Bitiqi← A. Kurochkin

75'

A. Yusuf← A. Johansson

77'

Robin Tranberg

86'

York Rafael

87'

H. Zackrisson← R. Tranberg

87'

L. Frigell Jansson← I. Bjerkebo

90+2'

Gustav Friberg

90+3'

A. BitiqiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GefleVarbergs

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots14

0.64Expected Goals (xG)3.48

3Corners1

17Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots14

4On Target7

3Off Target4

1Blocked3

3Inside Box10

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

436Total Passes399

376Accurate Passes332

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0