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Gefle IF vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Gefle IF
Gefle IF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
11/11/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 30Gavlevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gefle IF41%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gefle IF
1.58
Trelleborg
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

creates per match

Gefle IF
1.44
Trelleborg
1.14

allows per match

Gefle IF
1.76
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Gefle IF+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gefle IF ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gefle IF or draw
65%
Gefle IF or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
59%

Winning margin

Gefle IF wins by 2+
20%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gefle IF 1+ goals
79%
Gefle IF 2+ goals
47%
Gefle IF 3+ goals
21%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
77%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
42%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gefle IF (draw refunded)
54%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gefle IF at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.76 · 45 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.72 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gefle IF attack 1.44 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Trelleborg attack 1.14 + Gefle IF defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gefle IF scores more
41%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
35%

Gefle IF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gefle IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gefle IF vs Trelleborg

Gefle IF and Trelleborg drew 1-1 in Superettan on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gavlevallen in Gävle.