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Geesdorf vs Kornburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Geesdorf
Geesdorf
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Kornburg
Kornburg
V. Held 74', 32', 23'
S. Schulik 88', 53', 48', 18'
4/8/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 27Metallbau Herold Sportstätte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geesdorf23%
×Draw20%
Kornburg57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geesdorf
1.39
Kornburg
2.29

Kornburg creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Geesdorf
1.00
Kornburg
1.45

allows per match

Geesdorf
3.12
Kornburg
1.77

finishing

Geesdorf+0.00on par
Kornburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geesdorf ↓

Kornburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Geesdorf or draw
43%
Geesdorf or Kornburg
80%
Draw or Kornburg
77%

Winning margin

Geesdorf wins by 2+
10%
Kornburg wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Geesdorf 1+ goals
75%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
40%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
16%
Kornburg 1+ goals
90%
Kornburg 2+ goals
66%
Kornburg 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Geesdorf (draw refunded)
28%
Kornburg (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geesdorf at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

Kornburg away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geesdorf attack 1.00 + Kornburg defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kornburg attack 1.45 + Geesdorf defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Geesdorf scores more
23%
level
20%
Kornburg scores more
57%

Kornburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
S. Schulik
23'
V. Held
32'
V. Held
48'
S. Schulik
53'
S. Schulik
74'
V. Held
88'
S. Schulik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geesdorf vs Kornburg

Kornburg beat Geesdorf 4-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 8, 2023.

Goals: S. Schulik (18', 48', 53', 88'), V. Held (23', 32', 74').

The match was played at Metallbau Herold Sportstätte in Wiesentheid.