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Geesdorf vs Großbardorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Geesdorf
Geesdorf
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Großbardorf
Großbardorf
J. Goller 90+3'
X. Muller 89'
J. Binder 39'
4/5/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 21Metallbau Herold Sportstätte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geesdorf26%
×Draw20%
Großbardorf53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geesdorf
1.56
Großbardorf
2.27

Großbardorf creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Geesdorf
1.00
Großbardorf
1.41

allows per match

Geesdorf
3.12
Großbardorf
2.12

finishing

Geesdorf+0.00on par
Großbardorf+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geesdorf ↓

Großbardorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Geesdorf or draw
47%
Geesdorf or Großbardorf
80%
Draw or Großbardorf
74%

Winning margin

Geesdorf wins by 2+
12%
Großbardorf wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Geesdorf 1+ goals
79%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
46%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
21%
Großbardorf 1+ goals
90%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
66%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Geesdorf (draw refunded)
33%
Großbardorf (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geesdorf at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

Großbardorf away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geesdorf attack 1.00 + Großbardorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Großbardorf attack 1.41 + Geesdorf defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Geesdorf scores more
26%
level
20%
Großbardorf scores more
53%

Großbardorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Großbardorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
J. Binder
89'
X. Muller
90+3'
J. Goller

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Geesdorf vs Großbardorf

Großbardorf beat Geesdorf 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 5, 2023.

Goals: J. Binder (39'), X. Muller (89'), J. Goller (90+3').

The match was played at Metallbau Herold Sportstätte in Wiesentheid.