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Geesdorf vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Geesdorf
Geesdorf
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
N. Becker 88'
M. Seifert 83', 58'
S. El Berd 48'
D. Haller 34'
J. Lindner 7' (pen)
J. Fischer 4'
4/15/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28Metallbau Herold Sportstätte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geesdorf18%
×Draw18%
Gebenbach64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geesdorf
1.29
Gebenbach
2.56

Gebenbach creates 98% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Geesdorf
1.00
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Geesdorf
3.12
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

Geesdorf+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geesdorf ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Geesdorf or draw
36%
Geesdorf or Gebenbach
82%
Draw or Gebenbach
82%

Winning margin

Geesdorf wins by 2+
7%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Geesdorf 1+ goals
72%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
37%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
14%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
92%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
72%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Geesdorf (draw refunded)
22%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geesdorf at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geesdorf attack 1.00 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Geesdorf defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Geesdorf scores more
18%
level
18%
Gebenbach scores more
64%

Gebenbach at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
J. Fischer
7'
J. LindnerPenalty
34'
D. Haller
48'
S. El Berd
58'
M. Seifert
83'
M. Seifert
88'
N. Becker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Geesdorf 0–7 Gebenbach

Gebenbach beat Geesdorf 7-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 15, 2023.

Goals: J. Fischer (4'), J. Lindner (7' pen), D. Haller (34'), S. El Berd (48'), M. Seifert (58', 83'), N. Becker (88').

The match was played at Metallbau Herold Sportstätte in Wiesentheid.