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Geesdorf vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Geesdorf
Geesdorf
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
A. Braun 72'
L. Gumpelein 67'
C. Schrodl 61'
S. Mjaki 53'
4/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Metallbau Herold Sportstätte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Geesdorf22%
×Draw20%
ASV Neumarkt58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Geesdorf
1.39
ASV Neumarkt
2.35

ASV Neumarkt creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Geesdorf
1.00
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Geesdorf
3.12
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Geesdorf+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geesdorf ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Geesdorf or draw
42%
Geesdorf or ASV Neumarkt
80%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
78%

Winning margin

Geesdorf wins by 2+
9%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Geesdorf 1+ goals
75%
Geesdorf 2+ goals
40%
Geesdorf 3+ goals
16%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
90%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
68%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Geesdorf (draw refunded)
27%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geesdorf at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geesdorf attack 1.00 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Geesdorf defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Geesdorf scores more
22%
level
20%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
58%

ASV Neumarkt at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ASV Neumarkt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
S. Mjaki
61'
C. Schrodl
67'
L. Gumpelein
72'
A. Braun
86'
Y. Aldijawi
86'
Y. Aldijawi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Geesdorf 0–4 ASV Neumarkt

ASV Neumarkt beat Geesdorf 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 29, 2023.

Goals: S. Mjaki (53'), C. Schrodl (61'), L. Gumpelein (67'), A. Braun (72').

The match was played at Metallbau Herold Sportstätte in Wiesentheid.