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Gebenbach vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
7/27/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Sportgelände Gebenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Gebenbach50%
×Draw22%
Würzburger FV28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
2.04
Würzburger FV
1.50

Gebenbach creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
72%
Gebenbach or Würzburger FV
78%
Draw or Würzburger FV
50%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
29%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
87%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
60%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
33%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
78%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
44%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
64%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Gebenbach scores more
50%
level
22%
Würzburger FV scores more
28%

Gebenbach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gebenbach vs Würzburger FV

Gebenbach and Würzburger FV drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportgelände Gebenbach in Gebenbach.