Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gebenbach vs Neudrossenfeld — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Neudrossenfeld
Neudrossenfeld
3/23/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 29Sportgelände Gebenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gebenbach49%
×Draw22%
Neudrossenfeld29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
2.02
Neudrossenfeld
1.52

Gebenbach creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Neudrossenfeld
1.35

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Neudrossenfeld
1.96

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Neudrossenfeld+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Neudrossenfeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
71%
Gebenbach or Neudrossenfeld
78%
Draw or Neudrossenfeld
51%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
28%
Neudrossenfeld wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
87%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
60%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
33%
Neudrossenfeld 1+ goals
78%
Neudrossenfeld 2+ goals
45%
Neudrossenfeld 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
63%
Neudrossenfeld (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Neudrossenfeld away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Neudrossenfeld defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.02

Neudrossenfeld attack 1.35 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gebenbach scores more
49%
level
22%
Neudrossenfeld scores more
29%

Gebenbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gebenbach vs Neudrossenfeld

Gebenbach beat Neudrossenfeld 5-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sportgelände Gebenbach in Gebenbach.