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Gebenbach vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
Preview
17:00
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
8/7/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4
39%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
38%23%39%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Gebenbach38%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Bamberg39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.68
Eintracht Bamberg
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
61%
Gebenbach or Eintracht Bamberg
77%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
62%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
19%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
81%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
50%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
24%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
82%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
50%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
50%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.68

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gebenbach scores more
38%
level
23%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
39%

Eintracht Bamberg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Gebenbach
WWWW
Bamberg
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gebenbach face Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Gebenbach hosting Eintracht Bamberg. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.