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Eintracht Bamberg vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
FT
2 – 1
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
7/19/2022Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2Fuchs-Park-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg48%
×Draw22%
Gebenbach30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.90
Gebenbach
1.45

Eintracht Bamberg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 69 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
70%
Eintracht Bamberg or Gebenbach
78%
Draw or Gebenbach
52%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
27%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
56%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
29%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
77%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
42%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
62%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
48%
level
22%
Gebenbach scores more
30%

Eintracht Bamberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Bamberg vs Gebenbach

Eintracht Bamberg beat Gebenbach 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on July 19, 2022.

The match was played at Fuchs-Park-Stadion in Bamberg.