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Gebenbach vs Coburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Coburg
Coburg
E. Terakaj 23'
S. Sener 76', 47'
T. McCullough 60'
10/14/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 17Sportgelände Gebenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Gebenbach51%
×Draw21%
Coburg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
2.22
Coburg
1.61

Gebenbach creates 38% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Coburg
1.53

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Coburg
2.35

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Coburg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Coburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
72%
Gebenbach or Coburg
79%
Draw or Coburg
49%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
31%
Coburg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
89%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
65%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
38%
Coburg 1+ goals
80%
Coburg 2+ goals
48%
Coburg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
65%
Coburg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Coburg away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Coburg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.22

Coburg attack 1.53 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gebenbach scores more
51%
level
21%
Coburg scores more
28%

Gebenbach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
E. Terakaj
47'
S. Sener
60'
T. McCullough
76'
S. Sener

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gebenbach vs Coburg

Coburg beat Gebenbach 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on October 14, 2023.

Goals: E. Terakaj (23'), S. Sener (47', 76'), T. McCullough (60').

The match was played at Sportgelände Gebenbach in Gebenbach.