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Gebenbach vs Ammerthal — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Gebenbach
Gebenbach
Preview
14:00
Ammerthal
Ammerthal
3/20/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 24
Big match
46%
Gebenbach
model favours
46%22%33%

Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Gebenbach46%
×Draw22%
Ammerthal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gebenbach
1.99
Ammerthal
1.66

Gebenbach creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Gebenbach
2.09
Ammerthal
1.63

allows per match

Gebenbach
1.69
Ammerthal
1.90

finishing

Gebenbach+0.00on par
Ammerthal+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gebenbach ↓

Ammerthal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gebenbach or draw
67%
Gebenbach or Ammerthal
78%
Draw or Ammerthal
54%

Winning margin

Gebenbach wins by 2+
26%
Ammerthal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gebenbach 1+ goals
86%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
59%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
32%
Ammerthal 1+ goals
81%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
49%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Gebenbach (draw refunded)
58%
Ammerthal (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gebenbach at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

Ammerthal away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.90 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gebenbach attack 2.09 + Ammerthal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.99

Ammerthal attack 1.63 + Gebenbach defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gebenbach scores more
46%
level
22%
Ammerthal scores more
33%

Gebenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Gebenbach
WWWW
Ammerthal
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gebenbach vs Ammerthal — Match Preview

Gebenbach face Ammerthal on March 20, 2027 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.