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Ammerthal vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Ammerthal
Ammerthal
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
O. Ogurtsov 89', 72', 55', 22'
M. Janner 87'
I. Amidou 68'
5/3/2025Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 32Sportplatz Ammerthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Ammerthal38%
×Draw23%
Gebenbach39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ammerthal
1.66
Gebenbach
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ammerthal
1.72
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Ammerthal
1.38
Gebenbach
1.59

finishing

Ammerthal+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ammerthal ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ammerthal or draw
61%
Ammerthal or Gebenbach
77%
Draw or Gebenbach
62%

Winning margin

Ammerthal wins by 2+
19%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ammerthal 1+ goals
81%
Ammerthal 2+ goals
49%
Ammerthal 3+ goals
23%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
82%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
50%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ammerthal (draw refunded)
49%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ammerthal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.59 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ammerthal attack 1.72 + Gebenbach defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Ammerthal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ammerthal scores more
38%
level
23%
Gebenbach scores more
39%

Gebenbach at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gebenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
O. Ogurtsov
55'
O. Ogurtsov
68'
I. Amidou
72'
O. Ogurtsov
87'
M. Janner
89'
O. Ogurtsov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Ammerthal 5–1 Gebenbach

Ammerthal beat Gebenbach 5-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on May 3, 2025.

Goals: O. Ogurtsov (22', 55', 72', 89'), I. Amidou (68'), M. Janner (87').

The match was played at Sportplatz Ammerthal in Ammerthal.