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GE Osasco U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

GE Osasco U20
GE Osasco U20
FT
4 – 6
HT: 2 – 2
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
Pablo 86'
P. Pereira 47', 45+4'
J. Ferreira Costa 45+2'
Kaue 80', 70', 55', 31', 10'
J. Araujo Barbosa 57'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GE Osasco U2031%
×Draw18%
Referencia U2050%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GE Osasco U20
2.24
Referencia U20
2.83

Referencia U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 24 away

creates per match

GE Osasco U20
2.60
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

GE Osasco U20
4.20
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

GE Osasco U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 88Under: 1288%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 84No: 1684%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GE Osasco U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

GE Osasco U20 or draw
50%
GE Osasco U20 or Referencia U20
82%
Draw or Referencia U20
69%

Winning margin

GE Osasco U20 wins by 2+
17%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

GE Osasco U20 1+ goals
89%
GE Osasco U20 2+ goals
65%
GE Osasco U20 3+ goals
38%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
94%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
77%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

GE Osasco U20 (draw refunded)
38%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GE Osasco U20 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GE Osasco U20 attack 2.60 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.24

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + GE Osasco U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

GE Osasco U20 scores more
31%
level
18%
Referencia U20 scores more
50%

Referencia U20 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Kaue
31'
Kaue
45+2'
J. Ferreira Costa
45+4'
P. Pereira
47'
P. Pereira
55'
Kaue
57'
J. Araujo Barbosa
70'
Kaue
80'
Kaue
86'
Pablo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GE Osasco U20 vs Referencia U20

Referencia U20 beat GE Osasco U20 6-4 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: Kaue (10', 31', 55', 70', 80'), J. Ferreira Costa (45+2'), P. Pereira (45+4', 47'), J. Araujo Barbosa (57'), Pablo (86').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.