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GE Osasco U20 vs Oeste U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

GE Osasco U20
GE Osasco U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Oeste U20
Oeste U20
R. Peccim 71'
C. Pablo 35'
L. Kaua 72', 67'
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GE Osasco U2029%
×Draw18%
Oeste U2053%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GE Osasco U20
2.13
Oeste U20
2.88

Oeste U20 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

GE Osasco U20
2.60
Oeste U20
1.55

allows per match

GE Osasco U20
4.20
Oeste U20
1.65

finishing

GE Osasco U20+0.00on par
Oeste U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 87Under: 1387%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 83No: 1783%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GE Osasco U20 ↓

Oeste U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

GE Osasco U20 or draw
47%
GE Osasco U20 or Oeste U20
82%
Draw or Oeste U20
71%

Winning margin

GE Osasco U20 wins by 2+
15%
Oeste U20 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

GE Osasco U20 1+ goals
88%
GE Osasco U20 2+ goals
63%
GE Osasco U20 3+ goals
35%
Oeste U20 1+ goals
94%
Oeste U20 2+ goals
78%
Oeste U20 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

GE Osasco U20 (draw refunded)
35%
Oeste U20 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GE Osasco U20 at home — creates 2.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Oeste U20 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GE Osasco U20 attack 2.60 + Oeste U20 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.13

Oeste U20 attack 1.55 + GE Osasco U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

GE Osasco U20 scores more
29%
level
18%
Oeste U20 scores more
53%

Oeste U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Oeste U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
C. Pablo
67'
L. Kaua
71'
R. Peccim
72'
L. Kaua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GE Osasco U20 vs Oeste U20

GE Osasco U20 and Oeste U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: C. Pablo (35'), L. Kaua (67', 72'), R. Peccim (71').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Prefeito José Liberatti in Osasco, São Paulo.