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Rotherham vs Colchester — League One 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
11/2/2013League OneLeague One · Round 15New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rotherham51%
×Draw23%
Colchester26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.85
Colchester
1.26

Rotherham creates 47% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.70
Colchester
1.31

allows per match

Rotherham
1.21
Colchester
2.00

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
74%
Rotherham or Colchester
77%
Draw or Colchester
49%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
29%
Colchester wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
84%
Rotherham 2+ goals
55%
Rotherham 3+ goals
28%
Colchester 1+ goals
72%
Colchester 2+ goals
36%
Colchester 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
66%
Colchester (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Colchester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Colchester attack 1.31 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rotherham scores more
51%
level
23%
Colchester scores more
26%

Rotherham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Colchester

Rotherham and Colchester drew 2-2 in League One on November 2, 2013.

The match was played at New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.