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GBK vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

GBK
GBK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RoPS II
RoPS II
8/3/2019Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 14Kokkolan Keskuskenttä (Kokkola)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

GBK45%
×Draw22%
RoPS II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GBK
1.92
RoPS II
1.63

GBK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

creates per match

GBK
2.17
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

GBK
1.53
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

GBK+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GBK ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

GBK or draw
67%
GBK or RoPS II
78%
Draw or RoPS II
55%

Winning margin

GBK wins by 2+
25%
RoPS II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

GBK 1+ goals
85%
GBK 2+ goals
57%
GBK 3+ goals
30%
RoPS II 1+ goals
80%
RoPS II 2+ goals
48%
RoPS II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

GBK (draw refunded)
57%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GBK at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GBK attack 2.17 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.92

RoPS II attack 1.73 + GBK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

GBK scores more
45%
level
22%
RoPS II scores more
33%

GBK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "GBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GBK vs RoPS II

GBK and RoPS II drew 0-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä (Kokkola).