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GBK vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

GBK
GBK
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FF Jaro
FF Jaroadvanced
4/28/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 64Kokkolan keskuskentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GBK10%
×Draw14%
FF Jaro76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GBK
0.97
FF Jaro
2.88

FF Jaro creates 197% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

GBK
0.40
FF Jaro
2.35

allows per match

GBK
3.40
FF Jaro
1.53

finishing

GBK+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GBK ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

GBK or draw
24%
GBK or FF Jaro
86%
Draw or FF Jaro
90%

Winning margin

GBK wins by 2+
3%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

GBK 1+ goals
62%
GBK 2+ goals
25%
GBK 3+ goals
7%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
94%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
78%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

GBK (draw refunded)
12%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GBK at home — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GBK attack 0.40 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 0.97

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + GBK defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

GBK scores more
10%
level
14%
FF Jaro scores more
76%

FF Jaro at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: GBK 0–2 FF Jaro

FF Jaro beat GBK 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 28, 2026.

The match was played at Kokkolan keskuskentta in Kokkola.