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GBK vs AC Oulu — Suomen Cup 2018

GBK
GBK
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
5/8/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundKokkolan Keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

GBK7%
×Draw13%
AC Oulu80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GBK
0.73
AC Oulu
2.83

AC Oulu creates 288% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

GBK
0.40
AC Oulu
2.27

allows per match

GBK
3.40
AC Oulu
1.05

finishing

GBK+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GBK ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–212%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

GBK or draw
20%
GBK or AC Oulu
87%
Draw or AC Oulu
93%

Winning margin

GBK wins by 2+
2%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

GBK 1+ goals
52%
GBK 2+ goals
17%
GBK 3+ goals
4%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
94%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
77%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

GBK (draw refunded)
8%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GBK at home — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GBK attack 0.40 + AC Oulu defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.73

AC Oulu attack 2.27 + GBK defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

GBK scores more
7%
level
13%
AC Oulu scores more
80%

AC Oulu at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GBK 0 – 3 AC Oulu

AC Oulu beat GBK 3-0 in Suomen Cup on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Kokkolan Keskuskenttä in Kokkola.