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Gaziantep FK vs Yeni Orduspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeni Orduspor
Yeni Orduspor
12/18/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Gaziantep FK59%
×Draw21%
Yeni Orduspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gaziantep FK
2.05
Yeni Orduspor
1.12

Gaziantep FK creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Gaziantep FK
2.21
Yeni Orduspor
1.40

allows per match

Gaziantep FK
0.84
Yeni Orduspor
1.90

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par
Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Yeni Orduspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw
80%
Gaziantep FK or Yeni Orduspor
79%
Draw or Yeni Orduspor
41%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
35%
Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
87%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
61%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
33%
Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals
67%
Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals
31%
Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
74%
Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.05

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more
59%
level
21%
Yeni Orduspor scores more
20%

Gaziantep FK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Gaziantep FK 2–0 Yeni Orduspor

Gaziantep FK beat Yeni Orduspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 18, 2024.

The match was played at Kalyon Stadyumu in Gaziantep.