Gaziantep FK 4–0 Söke 1970: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Söke 1970

11/2/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gaziantep FK86%

×Draw11%

Söke 19704%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchSöke 1970

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.42

Gaziantep FK

2.77

Söke 1970

0.42

Gaziantep FK creates 560% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

2.21

creates per match

0.00

0.84

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

2.21

Söke 1970

0.00

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

0.84

Söke 1970

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Söke 1970+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Söke 1970 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

96%

Gaziantep FK or Söke 1970

89%

Draw or Söke 1970

14%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

66%

Söke 1970 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

94%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

76%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

51%

Söke 1970 1+ goals

34%

Söke 1970 2+ goals

7%

Söke 1970 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

96%

Söke 1970 (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Söke 1970 away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 2.21 + Söke 1970 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.77

Söke 1970 attack 0.00 + Gaziantep FK defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

86%

level

11%

Söke 1970 scores more

4%

Gaziantep FK at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff